Current overview of the weather maps this morning illustrates the northern Gulf coast under the control of southerly/Gulf moisture return flow west of a surface high anchored offshore of NE Florida in the Atlantic and a weak Warm front across the central Gulf. With increasing surface moisture, our instability will respond with much more fuel for thunderstorms to develop. Models are starting to come in good agreement over the idea of a cluster of t-storms developing across coastal SE LA/southern MS between 9 a.m. 12 p.m. today.
The warm front will drift north helping to surge higher moisture values across the area leading to an attendant increase in instability. Temperatures today and Wednesday will remain well above-normal. One thing worthy of noting is with the surge in moisture along with continued above-normal temperatures, heat indices will peak in the lower to mid-90s, especially for areas away from the rain.
Beyond mid-week into late week and into the weekend is where things get interesting. One thing to watch will be a very strong cold front diving southeast across the central Plains/Midwest later Wednesday/early Thursday. Models solutions agree that the front will pass the area midday Thursday. Another piece of energy will move across the Gulf coast during the afternoon/evening and night time hours Thursday. This will also need to be closely monitored, as model guidance supports t-storms/heavy rain setting up somewhere across our region – more likely areas north of I-10/12.
This system should quickly exit, and then we have to deal with the upper-low out west, as it steadily opens up to more of a short-wave across central and eastern Texas by late Saturday and help deliver yet another round of showers and storms come Saturday through early Sunday. Once again, a stationary front/possible warm front will serve as a focus for heavy rain/thunderstorms generally across the same areas along and north of I-10.