Today through Wednesday the driving force across the region will be a ridge of high-pressure across the Gulf. This will not completely shut down rain chances however, it will not help things out either. This will also keep things above normal from a temperature standpoint. The building ridge should help keep things warm and dry for the most part today but a few light sprinkles could develop as low level moisture begins to surge back into the region.
As for Tuesday and Wednesday the biggest issue will be disturbances coming out of the southwest. The area will be on the periphery of the ridge and this could allow a few disturbances to ride it impacting the northern half of the area. We will have ample moisture to work with, combine that with day time heating and whatever extra support and we could see scattered of numerous afternoon showers and thunderstorms both Tuesday and Wednesday, mainly north of the 10/12 corridor.
Confidence in the forecast for late Thursday through the weekend is mixed. Questions really come more into timing and strength along with temperatures. Will a cold front move through Thursday night or will it remain north as we wait for a stronger system to swing it through late this weekend? Models will come into better agreement in the next day or so.