Not a lot of change in thinking. Dry cool days and nights are expected until next week. Days 4 and 5 are in the sights with respect to the next system. Models did very well with this cold front the last few days until this morning. I can’t say that this was a surprise since this happens quite often during the winter and early spring months. The next system is still too far out to offer any strong evidence to the extent of strong or severity, but there are some clues that SPC is using to give a slight risk in day 5 of the current outlook.
One thing that has the highest confidence with this is that there will be some breezy conditions ahead of and behind this system and this is not unusual as we approach the early part of spring.