High pressure is currently along the eastern Seaboard with the moisture flow back in the area. The pattern will allow the moisture axis to continually increase with higher values over the west half of the region. Surface high pressure will retreat east as a cold front moves east across the desert SW. Isolated showers will remain in the forecast today and increase in coverage slightly tonight and Friday.
An area of low-pressure is expected to lift northeast with dry air moving into this system Saturday condensing the moisture flow across Arkansas and east Texas. Models are showing a slow progression of this system Saturday night. This will allow some time for marginal instability to migrate north across southwest Mississippi and parts of east central Louisiana. With the main system starting to die off Sunday, we will see widespread showers with embedded thunderstorms across northwest parts of forecast area Sunday morning…one or two strong cells northwest of the southern 6 counties. The threat of t-storms may diminish as the cold front and moisture axis push east on Sunday.
Dry weather will occur Monday and possibly Tuesday. Upper level flow will remain southwest and the next system will advect moisture and the chance of rain over the area late Tuesday and Wednesday of next week.