12/12 – Rob Knight’s “Rain Coming” Thursday Morning Forecast

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Models are in pretty good agreement in depicting low-pressure development along the stationary front situated across the central Gulf. This feature remains relatively weak but does cause pressure winds in the outer-coastal to increase later today along with rainfall into the area by this afternoon.

Temperatures will be greatly influenced by increased cloud cover and eventual rain but should be able to warm into the lower 60s based on offshore temperature trends. Any rain shield associated with the low should move east of the forecast area Friday morning with drier air working in from the west. If clouds clear as anticipated, then upper 60s to perhaps lower 70s are possible Friday afternoon.

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A pretty nondescript weekend is expected with weak surface high pressure settled over the area and somewhat neutral advection. A disturbance over the western states will amplifies upon approach into the Lower Mississippi Valley with a cold front moving through the area Monday night into Tuesday.

Currently, SPC is highlighting a 15% chance of severe thunderstorms to our north where better dynamics and frontal forcing is the greatest. That front moves off the coast by Tuesday morning, per most guidance, with colder high pressure building in its wake.