High pressure centered near to the NW will shape the forecast through Tuesday. Today will bring a few upper-level clouds with the humid flow beginning this afternoon.
Surface high-pressure will shift east today allowing onshore flow to bring moisture back to the area overnight tonight. Rain chances start to ramp up Tuesday late afternoon, but this would only be rain…with the best dynamic will be well to the north of the area. There looks to be only a window of maybe 3 hours or so just ahead of the front where conditions become favorable for t-storm activity. This would primarily be late evening tomorrow night into the first part of Wednesday. The SPC is carrying a marginal risk west of Interstate 55 for Tuesday.
The front won’t get very far south of Mississippi late Wednesday, but should be far enough to get precipitation out of the area by Wednesday evening. High-pressure will build into the northern Gulf of Mexico behind Wednesday’s system for a few days until the next system rolls out of the Rockies. Thanksgiving Day will actually see fairly close to normal temperatures, although there may be a fair amount of low cloud cover. Friday and Saturday will be unseasonably warm with some locations potentially reaching 80 degrees either or both days. Timing of the next system is coming a little more into agreement with a frontal passage Saturday night or Sunday morning.