9/11 – Rob’s Wednesday Morning Forecast

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The overall upper level pattern over the southeastern U.S. will generally be the same through the rest of this week with an upper level high-pressure centered near the Appalachian Mountains. Small changes in its strength and proximity to the area will bring forth and take away daily convective coverage. On the temperature side, it looks to be a few degrees above normal with highs in the lower to mid-90s.

Operational global models then indicate that the ridge will begin build west across the LA/MS forecast area and well into Texas. This transition should both decrease precipitation chances down to below isolated and increase daytime highs back into the mid-90s Thursday. By
Sunday, an inverted trough tracking across the northeastern Gulf of Mexico will be eroding the ridge over the area and bring the return of higher rain chances. The GFS has backed off onwidespread convection across the entire area Saturday, and is now in closer agreement other models…suggesting that the high-pressure will limit higher coverage in south Mississippi.

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Sunday and Monday are increasingly looking wetter with the potential for repeated bouts of rain. A few models are hinting at some potential for a tropical system to develop over the NE’tern Gulf of Mexico. Other models are too inconsistent which leads to little confidence outside of increased rain chances at this time.