Rain looking likely this afternoon and some could be very heavy. Moisture values are again around 2.5″ today and storm motion will be slow as well but at least somewhat pulsing. Storm total rainfall amounts should not get out of hand but that is not going to be the issue with any isolated areas that get the most rainfall. It will be the rainfall rates that would cause the issues. Some of these could drop around 3″/hr with the heaviest producers. Those thunderstorms capable of staying over any one area for that full hour or more will see some flooding of low lying and poor drainage areas.
Basically, the totals forecast will be for 2 to 4″ with localized higher amounts possible. This should be mainly in and adjacent to the slight risk of excessive rainfall area that WPC has introduced. Severe weather variables are again not impressive so rainfall should be the biggest issue. This could be much the same for Tuesday as well. But some slightly drier air could keep rain chances a bit lower for Wednesday and at least Thursday but moisture will be back by Friday and hold through the weekend.