6/25 – Rob’s “Marginal Threat” Tuesday Morning Forecast

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Starting off the morning humid and warm with an upper level ridge trying to build across the Gulf of Mexico from the western Atlantic today. Meanwhile, a weak shortwave will track across east Texas, Arkansas and northern Louisiana. This will bring increased rain chances to at least the north an northwestern portions of the forecast area. A rebound of daytime temps is expected as well with highs back in the upper 80s to lower 90s. There is a marginal threat for severe weather, but the potential appears to be on the low-end with strong winds and small hail the main factors.

The remainder of the week will be characterized by upper level high-pressure building across the southern half of the country from Texas to the East Coast. It will be a daily battle between daytime heating induced convection and subsidence aloft. The high-pressure will weaken heading into the weekend as an upper-level disturbance will track out of Canada across the northeastern U.S., eroding the high-pressure across the southeastern US. This will allow strong daytime heating to produce numerous afternoon thunderstorms. Expect this summertime pattern to persist into at least the first half of next week.