Outside of one day of numerous storms and a few days of scattered convection, it’s been a slow and quiet weather period over the last 3 weeks. We’ll get one more of those generally quiet ones today before the pattern changes. Highs will once again be several degrees above normal with the area experiencing highs in the low/mid 90s.
Water vapor imagery shows a deep plume of moisture extending from the tropical wave in the Bay of Campeche, northward across Texas towards the central plains. The combination of an upper disturbance approaching from the west and a ridge remaining centered over the southern Gulf of Mexico will bring this moisture northward across the southern Gulf States late this week. Showers and thunderstorms will increase from SW to NE across the area Wednesday. It’s not until Thursday that the deeper tropical moisture will move in. The WPC will be going with a Slight Risk for Excessive Rainfall on Thursday. A local Flash Flood Watch may be needed as well as concerns for locally heavy rainfalls are increasing.
Higher coverage of showers and thunderstorms will continue into Friday as the base of the closed low or open trough slowly moves across northern Texas and Oklahoma. The disturbance will begin quickly shifting northeast towards the Great Lakes Saturday. Before the bulk of moisture exits, dry air will be moving into the mid-levels. Higher rain chances will finally be dwindling down Sunday and especially next week as upper level ridge builds north across Mexico and Texas. Scattered convection will be possible but should be more in the 20 to 30% coverage categories. Highs will be rebounding from cooler/wetter period late this week.