5/15 – Rob’s “Mid-Week” Morning Forecast

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Calm is the word for today, as mostly sunny skies and dry conditions prevail across the area. Temperatures continue to steadily climb today reaching the mid to upper 80’s for many, with a few locations likely touching 90 by the end of the week. As for Saturday, increasing moist transport from the northern Gulf will help spark more widespread spotty showers/storms. Main idea for Friday and Saturday is it will feel very summer-like with afternoon highs reaching around or near 90 and becoming more humid with afternoon hit-or-miss showers/storms.

By early Sunday, a cold front will try to make its way east across the southern MS valley region. Long-range guidance has continued to illustrate low confidence on the progression of associated showers/storms through the area. The severe weather threat is low, as better dynamic forcing is well north. But in such a high instability/low dynamic shear set up, any one storm may be locally strong Sunday afternoon with gusty winds the main threat. This front will struggle to press too far east before lifting back north as a warm front early next week. We may be facing widespread 90’s by the early to middle part of next week easily in a pattern like this, while remaining generally on the dry side with no additional significant impacts expected through the rest of the forecast period.