Enjoy the dry weather today, because it may be the last dry day across the area for a while.
An upper-level area of low-pressure will get kicked out of the southwest which will produce a southwesterly upper flow across the area, as the atmosphere begins to get very saturated. By Thursday afternoon, a cold front will lag from near Chicago and the trailing to near Memphis and Houston. With high-pressure building just to our east, we’ll see the dry weather hang around one more day, even as onshore flow becomes more established. We could see some showers or a few thunderstorms west of the area today…especially this afternoon as the airmass continues to destabilize. Wednesday a will bring the same scenario.
The larger threat will be Thursday as secondary disturbance moves through the area as the airmass will be even more unstable than Wednesday.
The SPC has a MARGINAL RISK for Thursday is certainly warranted from the McComb and Baton Rouge areas westward.
Locally heavy rain could also be an issue late in the day Thursday in the far west with current indications around 1 inch.