5/3 – Rob Knight’s Fri-Yay Morning Forest

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The main forecast concerns remain centered on T-Storms and the threat of severe weather on Saturday and the chances for convection again next week.

High-pressure aloft over the extreme southeast U.S. will continue to weaken today while low level southerly flow maintains a warm and humid air mass across the region to end the work week. A dry forecast is in the offing for today with changes into the weekend.

The weather will become more active on Saturday as a potent disturbance moves out of northern Mexico and into Texas later today and tonight and then traverses the lower Mississippi Valley during the day Saturday. The approach and passage of this feature is expected to result in widespread T-Storms moving from west to east across the forecast area during the day Saturday. The highest rain chances and greatest threat of SEVERE WEATHER will be west of Interstate 55 during the morning hours and from late morning through the afternoon hours east of Interstate 55. The potential exists for some strong thunderstorm with a few possibly severe. Strong winds appear to be the greatest threat from any severe thunderstorms at this time. SPC has place nearly the entire forecast area within a Slight Risk area for Saturday.

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As the system moves off to the east of the region Saturday night, a weak cold front will sag south into the area late Saturday night and into Sunday. This boundary will likely settle near the coast before becoming stationary. The best moisture will have pushed off to the east by this time, so convection will be waning Saturday night and be mainly confined to coastal areas and the adjacent coastal waters on Sunday. Sunday will mainly be a dry day.