We continue to reside in a transition to a more active pattern late this week which will persist into the upcoming weekend. A weak stationary front is currently moving into the NW’tern potion of the state. As we get into the later morning and afternoon hours today, additional lift in the atmosphere with high moisture content will aid in widespread thunderstorm development.
With anomalously high PW values, there lies the risk of very heavy rainfall leading to localized flash flooding.
Because of this, the area continues to be in a marginal risk of thunderstorms exceeding flash flood guidance today. That is not to say any one isolated strong storm couldn’t produce strong gusty winds, but the chance for widespread severe weather will be low.
By tomorrow, the pattern doesn’t change much with another round of late morning/afternoon storms once again. Threats for Saturday will be similar to today with heavy thunderstorms leading to localized flash flooding in some places, as well as perhaps a strong storm or two delivering gusty winds and dangerous lightning.
By Sunday and into Monday, the aforementioned weak shortwave trough to our north exits off the east coast then dissipates.