A typical summertime convective regime is developing across the region. An area of upper-level high pressure is currently centered just east of the Rocky Mountains will slowly migrate towards the MO/AR/TN/KY intersection from today to Friday. This will leave the region/area in a fairly open to Gulf moisture.
The combination of a lack of direct strong subsidence, ample moisture in place, and daytime heating will result in an active forecast period. During this time frame, rain chances will range from at lowest around 30-40% and at highest, 60-70%. This type of coverage and no ridge aloft should keep high temps quite close to climatological normal.
Rain potential will drop off to about 20% Thursday into the weekend as an area of high-pressure will move to our east.