It’s a little early in the season for this kind of intensity/heat, as was well published with yesterday’s record high temps, with today bringing much the same. This is being caused by two regions of lift on either side of our area. One elongated SW-NE from Texas to Michigan and the other being the surface low over the northeast gulf. The air from both these systems lift has to come down somewhere. As it descends, compressional heating causes the air to dry and heat up. We are located where this air is sinking at the moment. This will slowly change once the surface low moves northeast and we begin to get more cloud cover.
Models remain consistent at not developing the surface low in the gulf, but at least it will close enough to our area to get a few sh/ts going for some much needed rain. The only issue with these will be the possibility that one or two become strong or even severe each day. Numbers supporting severity are highest Wed although pop numbers are somewhat low. This normally means that wherever a thunderstorm breaks out Wed, it will have a much better chance of becoming severe. These should come in the form of downbursts east of the Mississippi River.
A very normal summertime diurnal rhythm of showers/t-storms should continue well into next week as well.