4/16 – Payton’s Monday Afternoon forecast

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A chilly afternoon, but plenty of sunshine. The forecast will remain quiet through the next several days.. Our trough has pushed well east of the area and northwest west flow has settled in. NW flow will remain in place through tonight then begin to break down as a ridge works across the Plains and the entire MS Valley region through the day Tuesday. As this occurs conditions will begin to moderate tonight. We should see one more night of below normal lows but by Tuesday afternoon we will be back to near normal temps.

Heading into the middle of the week we will be watching a strong disturbance moving across the northern Plains which will close off as it reaches the Upper MS Valley and the Great Lakes Wednesday night. This will send another front into the area that night as well but with little to no mid-level support and not enough time for moisture to recover ahead of this front we should be mostly rain free. Although not a strong cold front we will see slightly cooler and drier air move in with the high pressure behind the front.

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Overall the medium range models are in rather good agreement that the next more impactful system will hit the area sometime this weekend. Consistency has been pretty good as well with the models showing this system for multiple days now. With that confidence is high we will see another round of showers and thunderstorms to close out the weekend.