Moisture and rainfall will be making a return today into Saturday as a cold front swings through the area. An upper level trough is currently moving southeast across the upper Mississippi Valley towards the Great Lakes. The southern portion of the trough is rapidly expanding south and will reach the Texas/Mexico border this evening. Meanwhile, tightening pressure gradient over the forecast area between high pressure over the Atlantic Ocean and approaching trough of low pressure will enhance southerly flow. This bring a surge of moisture throughout the column. Model show a few showers developing mid-morning through early afternoon. More widespread activity will likely be nudging into northwestern portions of the area later this afternoon. The bulk of the activity should be rolling through tonight as the cold front moves through. While there doesn’t appear to be a big threat of severe weather, soundings do indicate a small window of opportunity for a few cells to be strong with wind gusts in the 30 to maybe 45 mph range.
No significant changes made to overall thinking about precipitation or ending of the rain with this system as models remain quite consistent. Strong cold air advection will usher in the coldest temps to the area since last winter/spring. Went on the colder side of guidance for nighttime lows Sunday morning with temps dropping into the mid to upper 30s for the northern half of the region. ATTM, doesn’t appear there will be any locations reach the freezing mark and a slight breeze should keep frost to a minimum. Will have to revisit this again today and Saturday.
The remainder of the forecast will be fairly quiet as high pressure builds into the area. Temperatures will gradually moderate each day as the upper trough that brings the front in ejects eastwards. Models indicate that the next chance of rain will be coming in middle to latter portion of next week.