08/24 Ryan’s “Harvey Strengthened” Thursday Forecast

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What began as a tropical depression yesterday has already strengthened into a hurricane, and is expected to continue growing before landfall overnight Friday. I believe this storm will bring unprecedented flooding everywhere from just North of Brownsville to just South of Houston, as most of these areas will see around 24″ while some will see as much as 30+.

Locally we’ll see our normal afternoon showers and thunderstorms enhanced by the addition of tropical moisture, but it isn’t anything we haven’t seen already through this extremely moist and unstable summer so far. Local rainfall totals are expected to range between 2-8″ from now until Tuesday, but could be conditionally higher depending on Harvey’s movements before and after landfall. Regardless, we will likely deal with at least a few locally flooded areas.

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The main concern with Harvey is that by Tuesday, it will have weakened into a tropical storm and will be swept eastward by an approaching longwave trough. Depending on how strong the system remains, how far East it is pushed, and whether or not it is “deflected” back out over the warm waters of the TX sound, we could see no further interaction or have inches of rain added to our totals as we finish off the week. We will continue to watch this developing situation closely, and update accordingly.